What Will The US Tornado Season Look Like In 2024? Our Very Own Storm Chaser Weighs In
By Tori Jane|Published March 29, 2024
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Tori Jane
Author
Tori Jane is a storm chaser, writer, photographer, and the village idiot - in that order. When she's not out and about dancing with the meanest storms on planet Earth for funsies she can be found wandering, shooting landscapes, writing, editing photos, and otherwise up to no good. Legend has it that she can also be occasionally spotted typing up short bios in the third person, but those rumors are unsubstantiated.
Every year, I get asked the same question: “What do you think tornado season will be like?” As a storm chaser and photographer, a lot of my friends (as well as the public) rely on me (and other chasers!) for information during severe weather season that can save their homes, or better, their lives – and one of the most frequently asked-about issues is just how severe the season will be.
Well, friends, I have good news, and I have bad news: the good news is that this season probably won’t be as cranked up as 2023 was. 2023 was a year of above-average everything when it came to severe weather. The bad news, though, is that there’s a decent chance – given a few factors – that this season will still be slightly above average regarding the numbers. So, without further ado, here are some thoughts on the 2024 severe weather outlook:
First, allow me to begin with a bit of a disclaimer: it's nigh on impossible to forecast what any one season will be like this far out – or, really, in general. There are simply too many factors that will come into play on a day-to-day basis that can make a forecast the night before essentially useless by morning, so weeks out is particularly dubious.
But, we can use a few historical statistics to figure out a general idea of how things may play out based on historical data and examples. So, what are some tell-tale signals that might just offer up some intriguing insight?
Well, for one, La Nina is making a return, meaning waters in the Pacific Ocean near the equator will likely be cooler than average (El Nino, its opposite, occurs when water in the equatorial Pacific is warmer than average) by the end of the year.
The transition from El Nino to La Nina means more tornadoes, typically – El Nino often suppresses spring tornadoes (and hail as well, which is great for crops), so as it fades, the likelihood of these things tends to go up. This year, meteorologists are fairly confident that we'll see a return to traditional tornado alley: states like Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and parts of Colorado and Nebraska.
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In 2023, areas outside the "traditional" tornado alley saw an unusually high number of tornadoes.
In many ways, it was an odd year – March and April were very active in states like Illinois and Iowa, and May was unusually busy as well (especially in the upper Midwest, while it was more average in the traditional plains). June lit up across the high plains of Colorado and other places, and this year, a return to more "traditional" areas is a welcome shift from the strange drought Oklahoma and Kansas have been feeling from our weirdly beloved "good bad weather."
...you know the type I'm talking about: the kind of weather where the sirens go off and we all go outside to see what we can spot before we have to retreat to the shelter. Last one to the shelter wins (note: please don't do this – take warnings seriously and err on the side of saving your own life)!
Even though sometimes severe weather can be scary and, ultimately, life-altering, there's also a strange beauty to it that most of us can't even begin to deny: the skies turn an astonishing shade of teal or blue-green (maybe sometimes even orange), and the smell of rain permeates through every crevice. The cattle start acting kind of odd and huddle together to protect themselves from the coming onslaught of rain and wind. The bowling-alley rumble of hail approaching from the horizon surrounds you. The wind begins to whistle. It means business.
One of the telling factors that will ultimately decide just how busy – or how not-so-busy – the spring season is is moisture.
If we get a good, strong flow consistently coming up into the plains from the Gulf of Mexico, then severe storms and tornadoes are much more likely. But if southerly flow is weak or not present, storm potential could ultimately suffer.
And, honestly, nobody can say that's a bad thing; less severe weather means less damage to homes, families, and lives – and nobody can complain about that.
So, while a 2024 severe weather outlook might not be the most accurate way to tell what storm season has in store – nobody has a crystal ball, after all – the general professional consensus is that this season will likely be above average. On average, the United States sees about 1,225 tornadoes per year; as of this writing, the projected total for 2024 is thought to be between 1,250 to 1,375 (according to Accuweather).
It all remains to be seen; we’ll see what happens! No matter what, though, stay weather-aware and have a plan – you never know what the season holds in store. Do you have a “favorite” storm you’ve experienced in Indiana? Tell me about it in the comments. It would be better if you sent photos, too! More of a winter person? Check out some of the worst blizzards in Indiana history!
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