Arizona July 17, 2019
You’ll Be Happy To Hear These Predictions For Arizona‘s 2019 Monsoon Season
While summer is a time of fun in the sun and letting go, it can also elicit fear in the hearts of Arizonans. We all know that once temperatures start rising, monsoon season isn’t far away. Luckily, this year is shaping up to be a little different than normal, and in the best way possible.
Monsoon season should be in full swing by now, as it officially begins on June 15. This year, however, Mother Nature has other plans...
Several factors play into the late start, one being El Niño.
This equatorial current in the eastern Pacific Ocean occurs when water temperatures are warmer than average, which translates to an unusually dry summer. It's also associated with areas of low pressure that inhibit the southerly winds serving as a catalyst for monsoons from forming.
Wet winters, like the one we experienced this last year, can also delay the onset of monsoon season.
Dry soil heats up much quicker than a ground saturated with moisture, so heavy snow packs definitely inhibit the development favorable conditions for storms to occur.
That heavy snow pack fed into a relatively cool spring - another roadblock on the path to getting monsoon season underway.
The storms feed on heat, so below-average temperatures means it'll take much longer for the gnarly weather to arrive.
Despite El Niño delaying the start of monsoon season, it also tends to increase the total rainfall when the storms do arrive.
Tropical cyclones, which typically form in late August and September, boost the atmospheric moisture levels and cause more precipitation.
According to the Climate Prediction Center at NOAA, Arizona will receive below-average rainfall through the end of July.
In August and September, however, the scales tip in the other direction as things start picking up again.
So even though we aren't totally off the hook this season, it likely won't be a complete washout like previous years.
Storm chasers, be patient - the time will come soon enough, but only after a few more weeks of fun in the sun.
For more information, visit the
Farmer’s Almanac website and the Climate Prediction Center page on the NOAA website.
Did you know about the forecast for this year’s monsoon season? What are your thoughts? Let us know, and be sure to check out our previous article to see what we’re in for once August rolls around:
25 Pictures Of The Arizona Monsoon Season That Will Take Your Breath Away